Tie on Sunday, What Are the Odds?

The Arizona Cardinals played against the Detroit Lions on Sunday. No One really expected much from the two teams which finished last in their divisions the previous year but then something happened. The game went into overtime and when both teams scored a field goal, the game went into “sudden death.” But after a few more minutes the game just ended and neither team won, the result was a tie game, 27 -27. Wait, what a tie!

How could this be? I wanted to see the victors drinking the blood of their fallen foe. Strange thing is my buddy Jacek and I were just talking about tie games and then this happened, but what are the odds of a tie? I should have bet on the tie but how could I have known. After looking into it a bit, I discovered some interesting things that many people may not be aware of, but should. Even former Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb famously said, after tying a game with the Bengals, that he did not know it was possible to tie.

How does the NFL count ties? Ties are counted as a half-win and half-loss in NFL league standings but what are the odds of a tie game? Data suggests that any NFL game had a 0.435% chance of ending in a tie score before the rule change in 2017 but that data is now as stale as week old bread. The new changes, such as shortening of the OT period from 15 minute to 10 minutes have thrown everything for a loop. Nowadays we are bound to see more ties.

What were the changes?

In 1974, the NFL added a 15 minute “sudden death” overtime period to games. “Sudden death” meant that the first team to score, won, even if it was a field goal. This was changed in 2012 when the NFL made the rule that each team needed to possess the football, then if there was still a tie, it became “sudden death.” The overtime rules were further changed in 2017 when the NFL shortened overtime to 10 minutes. Since the rule changes in 2017, 3 games have resulted in a tie score.

Historically, from 1974 to 2012 there were only 17 tied games. That meant a lot of games were decided by the kicker as it was the now famous “Snow Bowl” 2001 AFC Divisional Playoff game when Adam Vinatieri kicked a game winning field goal. These games however were not ties, they had a clear victor.

In 2012 the NFL decided to change the rules. They said each team must at least have a chance to score because the coin toss had become so important. You see, the winner of the coin toss would receive the ball first and have a good chance to move into field goal position and win the game because of the sudden death rules.

In 2017 the NFL changed the 15 minute overtime period to just 10 minutes in a hope to reduce the risk of injuries to players. Of the 4 major sports leagues in the US it is the only one where a game can result in a tie. The reduction of the time is sure to make it so that we are going to see an increase in the number of ties per year.

What are the rules?

OVERTIME RULES FOR NFL PRESEASON AND REGULAR SEASON

• At the end of regulation, the referee will toss a coin to determine which team will possess the ball first in overtime. The visiting team captain will call the toss.
• No more than one 10-minute period will follow a three-minute intermission. Each team must possess, or have the opportunity to possess, the ball. The exception: if the team that gets the ball first scores a touchdown on the opening possession.
• Sudden death play — where the game ends on any score (safety, field goal or touchdown) — continues until a winner is determined or time ends.
• Each team gets two timeouts.
• The point after try is not attempted if the game ends on a touchdown.
• If the score is still tied at the end of the overtime period, the result of the game will be recorded as a tie.
• There are no instant replay coach’s challenges; all reviews will be initiated

Tied Games

Tied games (1974–2011)

No.	Date	Away team	Home team	Score
1	September 22, 1974	Steelers	Broncos	35–35
2	September 19, 1976	Rams	Vikings	10–10
3	November 26, 1978	Vikings	Packers	10–10
4	October 12, 1980	Packers	Buccaneers	14–14
5	October 4, 1981	Jets	Dolphins	28–28
6	December 19, 1982	Packers	Colts	20–20
7	October 24, 1983	Giants	Cardinals	20–20
8	November 4, 1984	Eagles	Lions	23–23
9	October 19, 1986	49ers	Falcons	10–10
10	December 7, 1986	Cardinals	Eagles	10–10
11	September 20, 1987	Broncos	Packers	17–17
12	October 2, 1988	Chiefs	Jets	17–17
13	November 19, 1989	Chiefs	Browns	10–10
14	November 16, 1997	Eagles	Ravens	10–10
15	November 23, 1997	Giants	Redskins	7–7
16	November 10, 2002	Falcons	Steelers	34–34
17	November 16, 2008	Eagles	Bengals	13–13

Tied games (2012–2016)

In 2012, the league instituted a modified sudden death overtime system. A total of 83 regular season games went to overtime during these seasons, 5 (6.0%) of which ended in a tie.

No.	Date	Away team	Home team	Score
1	November 11, 2012	Rams	49ers	24–24
2	November 24, 2013	Vikings	Packers	26–26
3	October 12, 2014	Panthers	Bengals	37–37
4	October 23, 2016	Seahawks	Cardinals	6–6
5	October 30, 2016	Redskins	Bengals	27–27

Tied games (2017–present)

In 2017, NFL shortened overtime from 15 minutes to 10 minutes.

No.	Date	Away team	Home team	Score
1	September 9, 2018	Steelers	Browns	21–21
2	September 16, 2018	Vikings	Packers	29–29
3	September 8, 2019	Lions	Cardinals	27–27

NFL Tie Prop Bet

As with anything, you can bet that you can bet on it. Tie game props are becoming more and more popular and may sportsbooks are adding it to their selection. SHould you bet on there being a tied game? We think, with the new shortened period to help reduce the chances of player injury and the fact that we have already seen a tie game in week one, its safe to say there will be another tie this season, but when and where is anyone’s guess.

Will a game in Week two of the NFL season end in a tie?:

YES	NO
+1750	-3500

Will the Thursday Night game end in a tie?:

YES	NO
+18500	-37500

Will there be another tie in the NFL before the end of the 2020 season?:

YES	NO
+1500	-2500

Will the NFL change the overtime rules for the 2020 season?:

YES	NO
+500	-750