Point Spread Bets Explained

Simply put, a point spread betting winner is determined by the number of points a favored team needs more than their opponent to win a bet, rather than who actually wins or loses the game. If the spread is 7 points the Favorite needs to have 8 point more for you to win your bet. Reciprocally, if you’re betting against them the Favorite need to only 6 points more, or less than 6 points more. So, the team you bet on must “cover the spread.” This means the team must win or not lose by a predetermined margin of points.

Let’s take a look at Super Bowl LIII, for example. In the 2019 Super Bowl, Patriots vs. Rams, Patriots were the favorite with a spread set at 2.5 points. The final score was 13 patriots – 3 Rams, so the Patriots clearly beat the spread.

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How Do I Beat the Spread?

We have all seen the films where the mafia sports bookie is trying to “fix” a game to “beat” the spread.  But what is this spread they are talking about? What does it mean to fix a game? How does a team still winning but winning by less help someone win a bet?

Well, first off spread betting one of the most exciting ways to bet in sports.  It is much different than fixed-odds or money-line betting because a simple win or lose of a game does not determine if you win or lose the bet. There are other factors which play into it.  This kind of gambling depends more of how accurate you place your wager and suddenly it becomes about how your predictions, judgment and skill and not just the W or L result. Now even those blow out games, where there is a clear favorite and an underdog can be exciting.

Everyone likes to root for the underdog, right? But how much will they lose by? Those races that were not even close, can now very exciting. Those champions are supermen and women but what if they had a handicap? 

We all watched Usain Bolt and Michael Phelps dominate the Olympic and win all their races by a mile. Who would bet against them winning? That would be crazy! But what if the second runner started 10 seconds before them? What if the swimmer was given a length lead at the beginning of the race? Betting on that is more difficult, that’s the adrenalin rush, that’s the excitement.

Underdog Betting, How to Cover the Spread.

Let’s look at “Underdog” betting first. The “Underdog” team is the team that is most likely going to lose the game against the “Favorite.”  The “Favorite” will most likely win a game against the “Underdog.” But how much better is The Favorite? Will they win by 8 points? By 7? By 6? How many points will “cover the spread?”  The Underdog “takes the points.”

The Bookmaker or the “Bookie” will set the spread point margin. For our examples the spread will be 7 points. PLAYER A thinks the Favorite will NOT win the game by 7 points. PLAYER A thinks The Underdogs score plus the 7 points will be higher than The Favorite’s score. So Player A bets on The Underdog and “takes the points.”

So if The Favorite wins the game by LESS THAN 7 points (6 or LESS), PLAYER A wins.  Reciprocally, if The Favorite wins the game, but by MORE THAN 7 points (8 or MORE), PLAYER A loses. A result of Team A winning by exactly 7 points will result in a push, draw or a tie.

The Bookmaker Has Given a 7 Point Spread
Underdog Betting  “Take 7 Points”
Win  If the Underdog’s score plus the point spread is GREATER THAN the Favorite’s	Lose If the Underdog’s score plus the point spread is LESS THAN the Favorite’s	Push/Draw If the Underdog’s score plus the point spread is EQUAL TO the Favorite’s.
If the Underdog’s Score + 7  > the Favorite’s Score	If the Underdog’s Score + 7  < the Favorite’s Score	If the Underdog’s Score + 7 =  the Favorite’s Score
Final score: Underdog 30 vs Favorite 3630 + 7 = 37 37  > 36	Final score: Underdog 30 vs Favorite 3830 + 7 = 37 37  < 38	Final score: Underdog 30 vs Favorite 3730 + 7 = 37 37 = 37

Favorite Betting, How to Beat the Spread.

Let’s look at “Favorite” betting Now. The “Favorite” team is the team that is most likely going to win the game against the “Underdog,” like we said before. But The Favorite “gives or lays down the points.” They get the handicap.

Again, the Bookie set the spread point margin at 7 points. Player A thinks The Favorite will win the game by at least 8 points. Player A thinks The Favourites score Minus 7 points will be higher than The Underdogs’s score. So Player A bets on the Favorite and “gives 7 points.”

So if The Favorite wins the game by MORE THAN 7 points (8 or MORE), Player A wins.  Reciprocally, if The Favorite wins the game, but by LESS THAN 7 points (6 or LESS), Player A loses. A result of The Favorite winning by exactly 7 points will result in a push, draw or a tie.

The Bookmaker Has Given a 7 Point Spread
Favorite’s Betting  “Give 7 Points”
Win  If the Favorite’s score minus the point spread is GREATER THAN the Underdog’s	Lose If the Favorite’s score minus the point spread is LESS THAN the Underdog’s	Push/Draw If the Favorite’s score minus the point spread is EQUAL TO the Underdog’s
If Favorite’s Score – 7  > Underdog’s Score	If Favorite’s Score – 7  < Underdog’s Score	If Favorite’s Score – 7 =  Underdog’s Score
Final score: Favorite 38 vs Underdog 3038 – 7 = 31 31  > 30	Final score: Favorite 36 vs Underdog 3036 – 7 = 29 29  < 30	Final score: Favorite 37 vs Underdog 3037 – 7 = 30 30  = 30

NFL, NBA, NCAA and Other Spread Betting Sports

In America, it is very common for people to place spread bets on NFL football game or NBA basketball games and try to come up with ways to beat the spread. In the organised crime world they do this by something called “point shaving” where a player or a team will perform slightly worse in order to “cover the spread”. The team may still win but Gambling Players loose. This is illegal and immoral and can be seen in places like the NCAA, which continues to have problems.

This is not what we are talking about, we are talking about mathematical, informational or insightfulness that helps you determine how to reduce the risk of placing bets. I.e. The more you know about your team and players, the crucial updates on their health or weather conditions.